How We’re Doing: First Polling Numbers
By: BJ Lawson
As you know, I’m a big believer in transparency in government. That translates into transparency in campaigns, as well — especially since our campaign is supported by so many people. Many have asked for insight into how we’re doing, and tonight we received results from our first poll.
We called a sample of 1,105 households across the district, stratified by precinct. Before we hit the results, let’s review our district’s demographics:
Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 28%
Unaffiliated: 26%
As you can see, while Democrats far outnumber Republicans, Unaffiliated voters and any swing Democrats can provide a margin of victory.
Here is the sample that we polled:
Democrats: 57%
Republicans: 26%
Unaffiliated: 17%
So our sample had significantly more Democrats than the overall district, with slightly fewer Republicans, and significantly fewer Unaffiliateds.
Here are our results:
Price: 56%
Lawson: 31%
Undecided: 13%
Considering that our ten-term incumbent typically wins this district with 65% of the vote, he’s off from his typical pace. Furthermore, the presence of 13% undecided is not exactly bullish for a ten-term incumbent who advertises liberally with taxpayer-financed mailings.
At this point, it appears we have reason to redouble our efforts towards this election. Not only are we maintaining our base, but we picked up five percent from Unaffiliated and Democratic voters — only 26% of our sample was Republican, and we’re polling at 31%. While our incumbent is polling at 56%, the sample was 57% Democratic — and the overall district is only 46% Democratic.
We know it’s time for change. I wouldn’t want to run against change this year. Nor would I want to run against a federal government that follows the Constitution.
Today is Constitution Day — please donate to fund our mail and media campaign, and help us win this election.
September 17th, 2008 at 12:00 am
BJ keep your chin up. As the economy continues to crash and burn we’ll see the incumbents (both Republican and Democrat) drop in polls. They can’t escape the fact that they are part of the problem in Washington.
September 17th, 2008 at 12:21 am
Keep up the fight BJ! I have a strong feeling you are going to win this thing. In terms of Itemized Individual donations, you are not that far behind Price:
http://fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapHSCandDetail.do?detailType=cand&cand_id=H6NC04037&category=searchCand&searchKeyword=PRICE
And even if you look at the donations themselves, a very large percentage are from MD, VA, and DC. These people don’t vote in your district! Neither do the PAC’s that have been donating to his campaign.
http://fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/HSRefreshContributorList.do?cand_id=H6NC04037&detailType=cand&contComeFrom=candDetail&contCategory=INDIVIDUAL&category=searchCand&searchKeyword=PRICE
Assuming a strong correlation between individual donations from NC & votes, I think you are on the right track. Good luck!
September 17th, 2008 at 12:56 am
So let me get this straight:
You cut the Republican representation by 2 pp’s, gave Democratic representation a 12 pp boost, cut Unaffiliated representation by 9 pp’s (which surely cut the ceiling you could expect to have achieved in the poll, as you undoubtedly lost support in the poll you would have gotten from Unaffs)…
And Price, the Democratic incumbent, STILL can’t get a percentage in the poll equal to the total representation of Democrats in the poll when you had an extremely high sample size and, correspondingly, a very low margin of error?
This is very bad news for David Price. There is absolutely no way that a pollster, Congressman Price, Jerry Meek, or anyone who knows anything about empirical science can accuse you of using a methodology that boosts your numbers.
September 17th, 2008 at 6:26 am
The biggest thing here is GOTV. It’s who gets the voters out on election day that wins. Polling is significant in that it can be a big motivator or a reality check…but those who actually hit the polls - early or on election day - is what counts. That was the big overlooked item in my campaign, where I finished 90 votes out of a winning spot. Having run a Congressional campaign in your district in 04 (Robert Whitfield), GOTV was a disaster….we had no signs….and little presence compared to the others…we used the internet as a primary resource and it should have been a primary-a resource with gotv/ground efforts a primary-b resource. I think you’re doing many great things and hope you continue your great efforts!
September 17th, 2008 at 8:14 am
BJ Lawson If Ron Paul is Obi-Wan Kenobi You must be Han Solo Let’s defeat the dark side together on this great day Constitution Day. May the constitution be with you.
September 17th, 2008 at 9:33 am
BJ, thanks for setting the example in transparency. It’s refreshing. And although redoubling efforts is no doubt in order, the numbers indicate that you have the momentum—an important X factor at this point. I’m actually encouraged by this blog post. I hope others are as well.
September 17th, 2008 at 9:41 am
What we need to do going into these big months for campaigning is hope for the best but prepare for the worst!
I hope the dem lawson supporters work hard because we really need the dems! And there’s nothing better for a dem to here than “it’s ok, I know he’s a Republican, I’m a Democrat too and here’s why we need to support him.” :p
September 17th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
BJ:
I’m impressed by the figures, and excited about the things Paige pointed out. We’ll continue to help you push this message of PEACE, PROSPERITY and LIBERTY for the next few weeks…and then we can all celebrate in November.
Best to you,
Justin
September 17th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Keep the message of Liberty alive! Please donate what you can. The more Ron Pauls in Congress the better!
September 17th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Four words: DIRECT MAIL TO DEMOCRATS
Actually, direct mail to both dems and independents. Target your left of center issues.
September 17th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
“Lawson Democrat” has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? Has anyone started a “Democrats for the Constitution” group in the fourth district?
Price voted for the war, and the Patriot act, and we know that he didn’t read the bills. That’s got to damage his credentials with any Democrat who cares about our civil rights.
-jcr
September 17th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
BTW, Harry Ried said today that “no one knows what to do” about the financial melt-down we’re seeing today.
Here’s the link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDXSrZc6VWYw&refer=home
Funny, but I could swear that there were about ten thousand people in Minneapolis a short while ago who could tell him exactly what to do about it.
-jcr
September 17th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Did anyone happen to look into the how many Democrats side with Lawson? How many Republicans side with Price? It’d be nice to know if we were winning more Dem votes than Independents, etc. If possible, we should be asking Dems why they support Lawson…it’ll help us get a feel for our “target audience,” if you will.
September 17th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
John, you mean that Price “voted for the war, and the Patriot act, and we know that he didn’t read the bills.” Right?
September 17th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Great work, BJ. Price definitely has a fight on his hands. Keep going.
September 17th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
D’oh!
BJ, please ask your web team to fix that for me. Either that, or give me an edit capability.
-jcr
###
Done
September 17th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
It’s a good start. When people hear what you’re all about and take the time to process your message, they’ll start coming around. Keep fighting the good fight.
September 18th, 2008 at 12:51 am
Well…
BJ, I like you, and I like your message, but as a Democrat I have trouble voting for someone who will damage our numbers in the House- how can i guarantee that you’ll break with your party when it matters?
You are not a neo-con, but seems like most Repubs in the House and Senate ARE these days- what if Republicans gain a majority in the House and vote for a Speaker who is… well… crazy, unlike you? How do I know that you’d break with your party then and vote Democratic? Or even if not, how can I be sure that the minority whip won’t keep you in line?
If you were an Independent, I would consider voting for you very strongly, but you are running with a party which has a platform that will drive the poor into the ground, infringe our civil liberties, and continue a hawkish, wasteful foreign policy- even if you wouldn’t… I just wish there were more politicians out there who were as concerned about liberty as you- and though I’m often ashamed of the Democrats, I can hardly see myself defecting to a party that still overwhelmingly supports disastrous policies.
Thanks for what you’re doing, keep working because its valuable, and make Price see the importance of our social and civil liberties! But until you promise me that you’ll break with the Republican Party, I can’t wish you a win…
September 18th, 2008 at 1:10 am
James — I broke with the Republican party the day I told my District Chair that I was going to run in the Republican primary despite her request to the contrary.
To quote Thomas Jefferson:
“I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party of men whatever, in religion, in philosophy, in politics, or in anything else, where I was capable of thinking for myself. Such an addiction is the last degradation of a free and moral agent. If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all.” –Thomas Jefferson to Francis Hopkinson, 1789. ME 7:300
My sole commitment is to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States to the best of my ability. I’ll caucus with Ron Paul to reform the monetary and banking system, Dennis Kucinich to preserve civil liberties, Marcy Kaptur to fight exploitative corporatism, Walter Jones to bring the troops home, Barney Frank to reform unconstitutional drug policy, and Roscoe Bartlett to address peak oil and long-term sustainability.
Our problems are not partisan problems — they’re American problems. If you look across Congress, there are glimmers of hope for restoring our Constitution across parties, and among many members. We don’t need political parties, and we certainly don’t need political parties funded at the exclusion of alternate viewpoints by the U.S. taxpayer.
We need principled leaders who serve the people, and caucus based on areas of expertise and interest instead of mindlessly parroting a vapid “party line.”
If I fail to live up to this commitment, I should be promptly voted out of office — in two years, not twenty.
September 18th, 2008 at 4:51 am
B.J.
Thank you for the update. I hope you can target some UNC football games. The bottom of Manning Drive is a great place to have supporters getting attention. I have been handing out copies of The Constitution to every Obama supporter I can hunt down.
I may make a visit to the Chapel Hill office and see if I can’t save a few lost souls.
September 18th, 2008 at 9:37 am
B.J.,
This is good to hear. I have been following your campaign fairly closely and its good to actually get some numbers. I am also very glad to hear your response to James’ concerns about party allegiance. This, however, brings up a question that I’ve been wondering for some time: what are you views on vote reform? As a life-long Libertarian I have always seen the need for a reformation of voting systems to be more inclusive. Have you heard of Instant Runoff Voting? Check it out and let us know what you think: http://instantrunoff.com/
Thanks,
Isaac Freeman
September 18th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I am encouraged by the numbers BJ. I will continue to support you from a financial standpoint even if I am not from the 4th District. I got to know you the the RP meetup and know that you are what we need in Washington. I wish we could get 535 BJs in the Capitol right now, we would all be better off. If I ever get a chance to get up to your neighborhood, I will surely come and support you to the best that I can. God Bless you BJ and as Jimmy V would say ” Never, never give up!!!!”
September 18th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
BJ:
Your response to Jame’s post is exactly the reason why you are the best person to represent our district in Congress.
As a teenager, who can’t vote, and will be one of the ones who suffers most from our current situation, there is NOBODY I’d rather have in Congress defending my rights and reminding our Government about the rule book.
September 18th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
James -
I, too, am a Democrat. A yellow-dog Democrat (you know - the kind who’ll vote for a yellow dog if he’s running as a Democrat). I met BJ when we worked together during BJ’s corporate stint. BJ and I talked a fair bit about life, values, and we agreed on many things (sometimes for different reasons) but also disagreed on some (few). I don’t live in NC but when BJ announced his decision to run for office, I sent BJ a contribution during the primary. I might even have been one of the first 10 people to donate on his website. I was proud to do it because I believe he is just the kind of person we need in public office.
After BJ’s primary win, I told him that I couldn’t support him financially in the general election for two reasons - I didn’t want a Republican Presidential candidate getting any support on BJ’s coat-tails in NC and I didn’t agree with him on one major issue that is a defining item for me - a woman’s right to choose (before I get any hate mail - I’m anti-abortion but like all true ‘liberals’ I believe this is a woman’s decision and the government has no place in this decision. If the choice is a sin, the mother will have to make her peace with G-d). BJ and I’ve kept in touch off and on but mostly I’ve watched the campaign from afar.
Having just read your note, I’ve decided to get off the fence. The more I read about David Price, the more convinced I am that he is just the wrong kind of Democrat. I’d rather have BJ in Congress than a Democrat like David Price. BJ will be getting another donation from this Virginian. I may not be from NC but I want to be proud of all of my country’s representatives….even if they’re Republicans.
I trust BJ to keep his word - to think hard about important issues, to take a principled stand, and to keep an open mind and be respectful of opposing views. So, I urge you, fellow Democrat, to reconsider your position on BJ.
Warm regards,
Shahir
September 19th, 2008 at 2:55 am
James,
People like BJ and Ron Paul are the conscience of the Republican party. You can be quite sure that most of the Republicans in Washington would far rather see David Price re-elected, than for a new Republican congressman to come in and actually follow the constitution.
BJ, like Ron Paul, will bring every other Republican congressman face to face with their conscience every time they pass him in the hall.
-jcr
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:29 am
B.J. - Let me know how I can assist in Hillsborough.
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:56 pm
I’m with you all the way BJ.
Let’s get Ron Paul some help in congress!
I’ve asked my many contacts to back you
up as well.
Blairsville, GA